Free Tips Fixed Match Today
Free Tips Fixed Match Today
Friday – 01 – 09/2023
** 19:00h **
LEAGUE: NORWAY: OBOS-LIGAEN
MATCH: Skeid – Asane
FT: 1-3 WON
In the aftermath of the latest mixed US employment data for July, the Bitcoin (BTC) price remains within previous ranges to the north of the $29,000 mark.
According to the data, the US economy added 187,000 jobs in July, which was less than the 200,000 predicted. Furthermore, the June job growth of 209,000 was reduced downward to 185,000.
A second household poll, however, found that the jobless rate had unexpectedly dropped to 3.5% from 3.6% in June. Average hourly wage growth was also greater than predicted, growing 0.4% MoM in July vs. 0.3% projected, raising the YoY rate to 4.4%.
The lack of reaction in the bitcoin price and other financial markets to the study was ascribed to the fact that there was “something for everyone” in the data.
On the one hand, the rate of employment growth in the United States is obviously declining, with the headline July NFP reading the lowest since early 2021.
That is an indication that the heat is going out of the labor markets, which the Fed wants to see since a hot labor market makes fighting still-too-high US inflation more difficult (or, some would argue, impossible).
However, the still extremely low (by historical standards) unemployment rate and wage growth that is well above the Fed’s 2.0% inflation objective indicate that the labor market remains much too hot for the Fed’s comfort.
Investors appear to believe that the latest employment report does not change the story significantly in terms of Fed tightening expectations.
According to the CME’s Fed Watch Tool, US interest rate futures pricing predicts an 86% likelihood that the central bank would keep rates steady at its next meeting in September, which is somewhat higher than before the data release.
Markets then attribute a roughly 75% likelihood that rates would remain at current or lower levels for the rest of the year, indicating that little has changed since the data release.
Interest rate futures in the United States now indicate that the Fed will have begun reducing rates by next March.
To summarize, the market tends to believe that the Fed’s tightening cycle is now over, with modest cutbacks beginning in 2024.
Comments from Fed policymakers support this notion.
While Chairman Jerome Powell will continue to try to keep the door open to more rate hikes in order to avoid premature easing of financial conditions, Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic was on the wires on Friday, saying he doesn’t see the need for any more hikes to ease inflation, a view likely shared by many other Fed policymakers.
So, with the US job market progressively cooling and inflation slowly rising, it looks like the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Given that strong tightening in 2022 was a primary cause of the bad bitcoin market last year, the conclusion of the tightening cycle should be seen positively for the bitcoin price.
Still, the conclusion of a tightening cycle does not imply a dramatic relaxation of financial conditions and a surge in liquidity.
With the US economy surpassing forecasts in the first half of 2022, the jobs market being consistent with a healthy economy, and inflation remaining far over the Fed’s 2.0% objective, the argument for significant financial easing is now weak.
Just as macro isn’t a significant headwind for Bitcoin right now, it’s also not a powerful tailwind, and it probably won’t become one until we have more serious concerns about a US recession and rate reduction.
For the time being, updates on more crypto-specific topics like institutional adoption (look for bitcoin ETF applications and corporate whales like Tether and MicroStrategy) and regulation (the SEC’s regulation by enforcement approach and global efforts to pass crypto regulation) are likely to have a greater impact on the price.
Technicals will also be significant, with analysts doubting whether Bitcoin can hold to the north of its 2023 uptrend, which it looks to be on the verge of retesting.
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